Hope,Hype and Truth
Having worked on Blockchain technology in the last five years and my recent reflections on the global attention that Artificial Intelligence is getting these days globally, below are my thoughts on the three stages of evolution of new technologies. I call them Hope, Hype and Truth stages.
Every new technology that emerges goes through a series of transformative stages. These stages not only shape the perception of the technology but also determine its long-term impact on society. Understanding these stages can provide valuable insights into the trajectory and potential of any technological innovation. Let's delve into the three key stages: Hope, Hype, and Truth.
Stage One: Hope - The Era of Potential
The first stage of technology evolution is characterized by hope and speculation. During this phase, discussions revolve around the vast potential and possibilities that the technology holds. Enthusiasts and experts share their visionary ideas, fueling the imagination of what could be achieved. It's a time of anticipation, where the focus is on the theoretical benefits rather than practical applications.
At this stage, concrete use cases may be scarce, but there is an abundance of opinions and ideological predictions. The conversations are centered on the transformative power of the technology and the potential it holds to revolutionize various industries. It is a stage marked by optimism and excitement as people begin to grasp the possibilities of the emerging technology.
Stage Two: Hype - The Peak of Expectations
The second stage is often referred to as the "hype" stage. During this period, the technology gains significant attention, and expectations soar to new heights. The content surrounding the technology amplifies its potential, attracting the interest of genuine builders, opportunistic entrepreneurs, and investors alike. The hype cycle can vary in duration, depending on the nature and complexity of the technology. In the hype stage, innovation and investment surge as individuals and organizations rush to capitalize on the perceived opportunities. This influx of activity often leads to a mix of genuine breakthroughs and ventures driven solely by the hype. Distinguishing between the two becomes crucial as the technology starts to mature. Nonetheless, the hype stage plays a vital role in generating the necessary momentum and resources for further development.
Stage Three: Truth - The Reality Check
The third stage of technology evolution is the "truth" stage. At this point, the initial enthusiasm subsides, and a clearer picture emerges regarding the actual impact and viability of the technology. The truth stage brings about a separation between those who genuinely contribute to meaningful advancements and those who merely use the technology as a facade. During this stage, people become discerning and can differentiate between impactful solutions and superficial endeavors. The technology is subjected to rigorous scrutiny, and its true potential is assessed based on real-world applications and tangible outcomes. This stage often brings a dose of reality, revealing both the successes and failures of the technology.
The truth stage is crucial in consolidating the gains made during the previous stages. It allows for a more accurate understanding of the technology's capabilities and limitations, paving the way for further refinements and developments. Through this process of evaluation, technologies can reach their full potential and find their place in the broader ecosystem.